Most rental projections you'll see in a sales deck are built backwards — starting from the return the seller needs to justify the price. This is the model we actually use with investors, with every assumption visible so you can stress-test it yourself.
Realistic net yield range
Healthy annual occupancy
Management fee
High season
1. Start with honest occupancy, not hope
Guanacaste's dry season (December–April) books strongly; the green season doesn't. A well-marketed, well-located property averages 55–70% annual occupancy. If a projection assumes 80%+, ask which specific comparable properties achieve it — with data, not anecdotes.
2. Model the full cost stack
Gross rental income is not the number that matters. Net is what pays you:
| Line item | Rule of thumb |
|---|---|
| Property management | 20–25% of gross |
| Platform & payment fees | 3–5% |
| Utilities, internet, pool & garden | $350–600/mo |
| HOA (condos) | $250–700/mo |
| Insurance + property tax | ≈ 0.6% of value/yr |
| Maintenance reserve | 5% of gross |
3. A worked example
A $450K ocean-view condo renting at a $240 average nightly rate with 62% occupancy grosses about $54K/year. After the full cost stack above, net income lands near $29–32K — a 6.5–7% net yield, before appreciation. That is a solid, defensible Guanacaste deal.
4. Where the model breaks
- Buying on gross yield and discovering the HOA eats a third of it
- Underestimating green-season vacancy in car-dependent locations
- Skipping the maintenance reserve on salt-air coastal construction
- Ignoring currency: your costs are in colones, your income in dollars
“The best investors we work with fall in love with the spreadsheet first and the sunset second.”
Run your own numbers before you fly down. If the deal only works at 80% occupancy and zero maintenance, it doesn't work — and there will always be another property. And if you'd rather have a second pair of eyes on the spreadsheet, book a session with Mejía Pro, our investment consultant.
Updated June 10, 2026
